Feedback of Prospero Stock activity Gaia Program

Hi Gaians! 

The competition is over and we will soon know the results of RobotVsGaia!

We have an update with the results by profile, seeing if the average Gaians beat the investment robot or it was the robot that won the competition. The goal of the workout was to have fun while learning some basics to manage your investment portfolio without being expert traders.

For more experienced investors, I know that the simulator is not exactly like in real life, there are certain limitations. But make no mistake: in investments in real markets, there are also days when you can not trade, operations that are erroneously executed or markets that we can not access. The system will allow you to continue operations during the month of February, although they will no longer be taken into account for the final evaluation.

As usual the Academic Team will inform when the particular feedbacks and final evaluation has concluded and uploaded to the Final Grades section. These are only the global results in terms of profitability, volatility and Sharpe according to profile. In short we will go up an individual result with the individual results (first qualitative and later quantitative).                   

About 40% of investors have outperformed the Robot in terms of profitability. Do not worry about not having surpassed the profitability of the robot, as we have been commenting in the tutorials, the investment fund managers try to surpass the indexes and they do not achieve it in a consistent way.

These would be the results according to profile:

Conservative:

The robot has obtained better average profitability and lower average volatility.

Gaians have gained on average +0.09% with 4,5% annual volatility. The robot-advisor obtained more profit (+0.14%) with less volatility (1,99%).

Moderate:

The robot has obtained better average profitability and lower average volatility.

Gaians have gained on average -0.06% with 5,99% annual volatility. The robot-advisor obtained more profit (+0.14%) with less volatility (4,09%).

Balanced:

The robot has obtained better average profitability and lower average volatility.

Gaians have gained on average -0.03% with 7,15% annual volatility. The robot-advisor obtained more profit (+0.18%) with less volatility (6,30%).

Dynamic: 

¡Gaians have won Robot!

Gaians have gained on average +0.59% with 8,78% annual volatility. The robot-advisor obtained a 0.21% with 8,62% annual volatility.

Aggressive: 

¡Gaians have won Robot!

Gaians have gained on average 0.50% with 8,75% annual volatility. The robot-advisor obtained a 0.49% (similar profit) but with more volatility (11,32%).

If you look, a variable that is key in the analysis of results has come into play: volatility. Low volatility is what most conservative and moderate profile investors are looking for. In many cases, it is more important than profitability.

At the general level, comment that a basic premise has been fulfilled: the more risk profiles have had greater volatility. In the few days we will give the individual results to be able to do a qualitative self-analysis.

Robot results table Profit Volatility
Conservative investor 0,14% 1,99%
Moderate investor 0,14% 4,09%
Balanced investor 0,18% 6,30%
Dynamic investor 0,21% 8,62%
Aggressive investor 0,49% 11,32%

 

GAIANS results table Profit Volatility
Conservative investor 0,09% 4,50%
Moderate investor -0,06% 5,99%
Balanced investor -0,03% 7,15%
Dynamic investor 0,59% 8,78%
Aggressive investor 0,50% 8,75%

 

Here you have gathered all the updates we have made from the first week of competition

First Update competition ROBOTvsGAIA  (Monday, January 16, 2017 19:53)

In these first days, we have identified our risk profile a total of 806 investors.

The distribution is as follows:

 

RISK PROFILE #OF GAIANS %
Conservative 28 3,47%
Moderate 624 77,42%
Balanced 79 9, 80%
Dynamic 30 3,72%
Aggressive 45 5,58%
Total 806 100,00%

It’s really common that most of investors are looking for security (77,42% of moderate investors).

Remember that as explained in tutorial 1, you must create your portfolio according to your profile. A moderate investor, for example, Should only invest more or less € 30,000 to 40,000 in equity among virtual stock. The remaining € 60,000 to 70,000 would be paid into current account at 3%. This means having 30% -40% in variable income and 60-70% in “fixed income”. In the following tutorial we will explain how to select the equity part.

Your competitor is one of the most important investment robots in the USA: Vanguard. Vanguard manages different financial instruments that invest in an indexed way. For this competition, we performed the profile test obtaining the result that automatically proposes us for the 5 profiles. See attached document of the portfolio of the Robot according to the profile

As you can see, as we discussed in the tutorial, the portfolio is divided according to the weight in fixed income and variable income according to the risk profile.

You do not need a lot of stocks to create a well-diversified portfolio. If you invest in index or etf’s, you have to be aware that you are investing in many companies. For example, investing in S&P 500, you are investing in higher companies in USA. This is the reason why only with 4 etf’s, vanguard considers the portfolio diversified. You can do the same in the virtual competition, looking for investments that replicate the behavior of indexes.

ROBO ADVISOR PORTFOLIO

 

Cost Conservative   Moderate Balanced Dynamic Aggressive
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 117,21 10% 18% 24% 30% 40%
Vanguard Total International Stock ETF 47,38 10% 12% 16% 20% 30%
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 80,97 55% 50% 42% 35% 20%
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF 53,95 25% 20% 18% 15% 10%
Second update of our competition ROBOTVsGAIA (Tuesday, January 24, 2017 9:32)

 

In summary, we have counted a total of 595 investors who have made some investment and we have correctly identified the profile. The results Vs. the robot will calculate them with these inverters.

On average, 37.98% of the Gaians have surpassed the robot. Only in the dynamic and aggressive profiles, the Gaians have managed to win the profitability of the Vanguard robot-advisor.

These would be the results according to profile:
Conservative: Gaians have gained on average +0.09%. The robot-advisor obtained a +0.06%. But the Robot has outperformed Gaians in 70% of the cases.
Moderate: Gaians have gained on average +0.03%. The robot-advisor obtained a 0.01%. But the Robot has outperformed Gaians in 63% of the cases.
Balanced: Gaians have gained on average -0.23%. The robot-advisor obtained a -0.04%. Robot has won Gaians in 71% of cases.
Dynamic: Gaians have gained on average +0.13%. The robot-advisor obtained a -0.05%. Congratulations! 57% of Gaians are winning the robot!
Aggressive: Gaians have gained on average -0.14%. The robot-advisor obtained a -0.09%. Congratulations! 62% of Gaians are winning the robot!

More than exceeding profitability or not, the important thing is to be consistent with your profile.

If you look, the markets have been negative. Therefore, the normal would be that at greater risk assumed, you have lost more. This is accomplished perfectly by the robot; the conservative profile is the one that has won the most (+ 0.06%) and the aggressive one that has lost the most (-0.09%)

Do not worry about being negative. Worry about having the portfolio well diversified and coherently inverted. The results would come in the long term. In competition, it is more important to invest coherently than the final profitability obtained.

Third update of our competition ROBOTVsGAIA until yesterday (Tuesday, January 24, 2017 9:32)

 

In summary, we have counted a total of 695 investors who have made some investment and we have correctly identified the profile. The results Vs. the robot will calculate them with these investors.

On average, 41.58% of the Gaians has surpassed the robot (better than last week). Only in the moderate and balanced profiles, Robot have managed to win the average profitability of the Gaians.

These would be the results according to profile:

 

Conservative: Gaians have gained on average +0.09%. The robot-advisor obtained a +0.08%. But the Robot has outperformed Gaians in 53,85% of the cases.
Moderate: Gaians have gained on average -0,01%. The robot-advisor obtained a 0.03%. But the Robot has outperformed Gaians in 59,22% of the cases.
Balanced: Gaians have gained on average -0.43%. The robot-advisor obtained a -0.04%. Robot has won Gaians in 64,71% of cases.
Dynamic: Gaians have gained on average +0.21%. The robot-advisor obtained a 0.11%. Congratulations! 57,14% of Gaians are winning the robot!
Aggressive: Gaians have gained on average 0.33%. The robot-advisor obtained a 0.11%. Half of the Gaians are winning the robot and the other half losing

More than exceeding profitability or not, the important thing is to be consistent with your profile. If you have a negative profitability, do not worry. If you have structured your portfolio according to your profile and done the number of operations required, you will have no problem in the final evaluation.

I hope you have learned a couple of new things about investing in the stock market.

Thanks for your involvement and participation!

Publicaciones que te interesarán

John Chisholm webinar - Thanks to everyone!
Encuentra la oferta en prácticas que mejor encaje con tu perfil

Pin It on Pinterest